The UK will sink to the bottom of the European economic growth league next year to join Italy as the slowest-growing economy in the EU, before falling further the year after to anchor the table alone, according to European commission forecasts.
The EU’s gloomy predictions are based on a soft Brexit – meaning Britain is expected to lag behind all its EU peers even if Theresa May can reach a deal with Brussels before 29 March.
The commission forecast that consumer spending growth will remain weak, continuing a subpar performance since the EU referendum in June 2016. It said business investment would remain subdued, while external demand for UK goods will dwindle. The commission predicted the result would be GDP growth of 1.2% in 2019 and 2020.
The euro area of 19 countries including Germany, France and Italy is forecast to slow from a growth rate of 2.1% this year to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, as the wider region enters a period of weaker growth following the strongest year of the past decade in 2017.
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