As Russia, the EU and China eye the Western Balkans, it may be that the old colonial power, Turkey, is best placed to play a key role in the region. And this perhaps because of, not despite, its economic problems.
Turkey has long considered the Western Balkans part of its sphere of influence.
The Ottoman Empire encompassed Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo up to 1918. A century on from the Ottomans’ demise, Turkey is again looking covetously at the region.
Turkey’s share in Serbia’s foreign trade is only about 3.5 percent, but it has crept almost without notice into Serbia’s top 10 trading partners and Kosovo’s top three. Turkish construction companies, for example, are building and will operate 20 power plants in Serbia.
Emerging Turkish-Serbian economic relations are indeed likely to be focused on energy, the showpiece being the Turk Stream gas pipeline led by Russian energy giant Gazprom.
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The Western Balkans makes up only a fraction of Turkey’s foreign trade, compared with trade with the European Union of around €145 billion ($165 billion). But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently spoke of increasing Turkish investments in Serbia to $5 billion in the longer term, from around €1.7 billion in 2017.
Still, with the Turkish lira down 42 percent against the dollar this year, there are questions as to whether Ankara can meet its promises of investment in the EU’s southeastern backyard.
“We are worried that the crisis in Turkey cannot be without repercussions for us,” Serbian Trade Minister Rasim Ljajic said recently.
Domestic problems drive external push
Analysts agree that the weakened lira will have a negative impact on Turkish government spending, meaning fewer funds will be available for the Turkish state’s activities in the western Balkans.
“But this does not necessarily mean that Turkish private sector investments will decline,” Gareth Jenkins, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security and Development Policy, told DW.
In fact, over the last 18 months, there has been a significant increase in Turkish private sector investment abroad, as a result of narrowing profit margins inside the country and concerns over rule of law.
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