Comcast and the Walt Disney Company have long been rivals. But Brian L. Roberts, who runs Comcast, has recently become the Magic Kingdom’s nemesis in chief.
He waged an unrelenting fight for 21st Century Fox over the summer, forcing Disney to pay about $18 billion more than it had planned in order to secure Rupert Murdoch’s entertainment empire. Then, on Saturday, Comcast emerged as the decisive victor in a battle with Disney for control of the British pay-television company Sky. In a deal valued at $39 billion, Comcast bid £17.28 per Sky share, while Fox — bidding on behalf of its soon-to-be owner, Disney — bid £15.67 a share.
For Robert A. Iger, Disney’s chief executive, the loss of Sky and its vast European customer base to Mr. Roberts has to sting. It was perhaps the first time during his ultrasuccessful 13-year tenure that Mr. Iger was denied such a prize, one he called “a crown jewel” when first pursuing it.
But the realities of the entertainment business make the outcome more complicated.
“I am happy that Disney didn’t get it,” Michael Nathanson, an analyst at MoffettNathanson, said in an email. “Comcast paid a very expensive price for this, and I think it’s hard to justify.”
Comcast’s offer for the majority stake in Sky puts that total value of the company at $48 billion including assumed debt, or 15 times expected 2018 earnings.
Mr. Nathanson added, “This doesn’t stop Disney.”
Disney will own 39 percent of Sky through its 21st Century Fox acquisition. Mr. Iger can hold on to those shares or sell them to Comcast. Disney’s stake in Sky would be valued at about $15 billion in such a deal, money that could be used to pay down debt associated with the Fox purchase.
Mr. Iger could also refuse to sell, which would put more pressure on Mr. Roberts because there will be a smaller pool of Sky investors from which to cobble together a majority stake.
Sky shareholders must agree to sell their stock to Comcast in the weeks ahead. Comcast needs more than 50 percent of shares to complete its offer.
Hulu could emerge as another chess piece. Disney is poised to own about 60 percent of that service after it closes the deal for 21st Century Fox, but Comcast would remain a minority shareholder with 30 percent. Hulu, which has over 20 million subscribers, is a pillar in Mr. Iger’s new strategy to sell Disney’s shows and films directly to consumers.
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